Islands of Stability AI governance
Rules for a technology whose frontier moves every few months. Two clocks, and what the site's era ratio makes of them.
A rule in force is a configuration that holds: an island the rule-makers built, and one they can move only by making a new rule. The technology it governs has islands of its own, eras in which one kind of model leads until the next overtakes it. Proposition 6 says that whether anyone can navigate between islands depends on how long the environment's eras last compared with how long the navigator takes to reconfigure. AI governance is where the site's own bet about that ratio is most direct, so this page puts real numbers on both sides.
This page takes no position on any law or bill, and forecasts nothing. The ratio below is an illustration: proposition 6's series is not named, and nothing here is frozen or tested.
On this page: The technology's clock · The rule-makers' clock · The era ratio · A push written into law · A crossing with a timetable · How the propositions meet AI governance
The technology's clock
Epoch AI estimates how much computing power went into training the notable AI models of each year. The largest estimate so far is a running record, and each time a new model beats it, the frontier moves.
Since 2010, 24 models have each set a new record for the computing power used to train an AI model, in Epoch AI's list of frontier models. A record held for a median of 132 days, about 4 months, and never longer than 583 days, the tenure of GNMT (Google, September 2016). The current record, GPT-6 Astra (OpenAI, about 1027 operations), was published on 3 September 2026. Epoch's wider list of notable models gives the same records except in 2021, where it does not count Wu Dao 2.0 and has Jurassic-1-Jumbo in its place.
The rule-makers' clock
The European Commission proposed the AI Act on 21 April 2021. It entered into force on 1 August 2024, 1,198 days later. While it was being made, the compute record changed hands 6 times: from GPT-3 175B (davinci), about 3.1 × 1023 operations, when it was proposed, to Gemini 1.0 Ultra, about 5.0 × 1025, when it entered into force.
The Act presumes that a general-purpose model carries systemic risk once its training used more than 1025 operations. The frontier first passed that line with GPT-4, in March 2023, before the Act was adopted. The record now stands at about 1027.
In the United States, Executive Order 14110, signed on 30 October 2023, required reports on any model trained with more than 1026 operations. It was rescinded on 20 January 2025, after 448 days. The first model in Epoch AI's data past that line, Grok 3, was published 28 days after that.
The era ratio, with real numbers
Proposition 6 divides the environment's regime dwell time by the organization's reconfiguration time. Above one, choosing an island and planning the crossing matter. Near one, timing dominates. Below one, no navigation strategy works, and three moves remain: shorten the reconfiguration time, park on the widest reachable island, or hibernate.
Taking the compute record's median tenure, 132 days, as the environment's regime dwell time, and the Act's 1,198 days from proposal to force as the rule-makers' reconfiguration time, the ratio is about 0.11. Counting to the Act's general application instead, 1,929 days, it is about 0.07.
On these numbers the rule-makers sit well below one. The Act's own text reaches for the first move where it can: the Commission may change its compute threshold with a delegated act, a faster route than a new law, and its recitals say the threshold should be adjusted over time. Its classification of systems by their use, rather than by how they are built, can be read as the second move, a wide island. Whether either is enough is not something this page can say.
Two cautions. The compute record is one measure of the technology's eras, not the measure: capability, cost and deployment keep clocks of their own. And the EU is one rule-maker among many.
A push written into law
Proposition 2 says that looking stable is not evidence. Only recovery from a push shows an island is there. The AI Act asks for both kinds of evidence from the providers of the most capable general-purpose models. Article 55 requires them to evaluate their models with standardized protocols, including adversarial testing, which is a push, and to track and report serious incidents, which is watching. The site draws no conclusion from this about the Act. It illustrates the distinction proposition 2 makes.
A crossing with a timetable
Proposition 5 says survival is decided in the passage between islands. A transit has a duration, a reserve burn rate, and a minimum set of things that must be carried across. Most transitions leave the duration to chance. The AI Act fixes it in law.
The Act entered into force on 1 August 2024 and set its own crossing, in steps:
- 2 February 2025, 6 months in: first provisions apply.
- 2 August 2025, 12 months in: rules for general-purpose models apply.
- 2 August 2026, 24 months in: general application.
- 2 August 2027, 36 months in: last provisions apply.
Only the first of proposition 5's three quantities is written down. The reserve spent and what is carried across are not measured here.
How the propositions meet AI governance
| Proposition | In AI governance | Status |
|---|---|---|
| P1 Sparsity | Not applied. | not applied |
| P2 The evidence rule | Illustrated. The law asks for adversarial testing, a push, as well as incident reports, which are watching. | illustration |
| P3 Exit statistics | Not applied. One rule's lifetime, the US order's, is not a distribution. | not applied |
| P4 Cost | Not applied. | not applied |
| P5 Transit | Illustrated. A crossing whose duration is fixed in law. | illustration |
| P6 The era ratio | Illustrated with real data. The compute record's tenure against the time the Act took to make, a ratio well below one. | illustration, real data |
Source and method
Models: Epoch AI, Data on AI Models, frontier and notable models, retrieved 30 September 2026 (CC BY 4.0). A record is a model whose training compute beat every earlier one with a published estimate. The estimates are Epoch AI's, and some leading models have none. Laws: Regulation (EU) 2024/1689, Official Journal of the European Union, 12 July 2024, and the Commission's proposal COM(2021) 206 on EUR-Lex. Executive Orders 14110 and 14148 in the Federal Register. The dates are the Act's as adopted.