Islands of Stability: changelog

v3.0 (Major version, from a measurement)

Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

The third major version. The re-run of Finnegan, Payne and Wang (2008), a test of proposition 3 in the fossil record, ran once after its deposit and came out killed. It is a measurement, so the major version moves, as the rule says, whatever the verdict. What the kill means for the proposition's wording is the author's decision, pending. No proposition's wording changed. Every proposition gets a v3.0 anchor, and the v2.0 anchors still resolve. The glossary now defines the verdict words.

Channel: Major version, from a measurement.

v2.0.1 (Patch version)

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Editorial: the page opens with In brief, the idea and the six propositions in plain words, where the evidence stands, and a guide to the page. Sections regrouped so the history follows the theory: open objections now come after the propositions, and the versions, earlier wording, what was dropped and this changelog come last. Spelling made American throughout. No proposition's wording changed, and every anchor still resolves.

Channel: Patch version.

v2.0 (Major version, from a measurement)

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

The second major version. The measles runway test, proposition 4's first test, ran once after its deposit and came out unresolved. It is a measurement, so the major version moves, as the rule says, whatever the verdict. No proposition's wording changed. The corrected orbits test, run the same day, was void and moves nothing. Every proposition gets a v2.0 anchor, and the v1.0 anchors still resolve.

Channel: Major version, from a measurement.

Orbits test r2 (Void run)

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Run once, after its deposit. Void: its control, the undisturbed arm, did not show the stickiness theory predicts, so under the rules no verdict on proposition 3 is entered. The ages the rules compare fell among quick passes through the neighborhood, before any sticking shows. The disturbed arm's stays were memoryless.

Channel: Void run. Counts neither for nor against proposition 3, and moves nothing.

Measles runway test (Measurement)

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Run once, after its deposit. Unresolved: the chance that a country's outbreak-free spell ends rose with the share of its people born unvaccinated since the spell began, but the interval reached below the smallest effect the rules required.

Channel: Measurement. Neither a survival nor a kill. Entered in v2.0.

Pre-registrations: orbits r2, measles runway r1 (Instrument)

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Frozen with every file hashed and deposited on Zenodo before they ran: orbits r2 (10.5281/zenodo.23071492) and the measles runway r1 (10.5281/zenodo.23071574). Orbits r2 corrects r1's design: its neighborhood is measured from the island's full edge, its undisturbed arm is a positive control, and every disturbed stay starts at the island's center. The measles runway is proposition 4's first test: does a country's outbreak-free spell end sooner when more children are born unvaccinated?

Channel: Instrument. Does not move the specification version.

Harness public (Instrument)

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

The harness repository is public at github.com/delimiterbob/islands-harness, after snapshot 1 rather than before it. Objections are filed there as issues, with the objection form. The code on its main branch still matches the lock deposited before the runs.

Channel: Instrument. Does not move the specification version.

v1.0 (Major version, from measurements)

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

The first major version. Measurements move the major version, and v1.0 enters them together: snapshot 1 of the Map, and the tests deposited and run on 30 September 2026 in ecology, climate and economics. The orbits test's invalid run moves nothing. Proposition 2 takes the refinement its lake pre-registration named in advance for a restricted E1: only a push shows that an island is there, but once it is, watching can locate its edge as well as a push that is small against the system's fluctuations. Its killed-by line changes with it, and its earlier wording is kept under Earlier wording. Every proposition gets a v1.0 anchor, and the v0.2 anchors still resolve. The page also lists every prior owner's work in full, with DOIs checked against Crossref, and publishes this changelog as a feed.

Channel: Major version, from measurements. Proposition 2's refinement is internal, from the site's own evidence, and counts as no external objection.

v0.2.3 (Patch version)

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Editorial: semicolons removed from the specification's wording, as across the site, in favor of periods, commas and colons. Proposition 1's plain line now reads "Working configurations are rare and bounded. Most of the space around them does not work." Proposition 3 is killed by "hazard falling with age conditional on depth, dwell linear in depth, or every exit showing precursors." No proposition's meaning changed, and the anchors are unchanged.

Channel: Patch version.

Expansions X1 (Measurement)

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Run once, after its deposit. Unresolved: within each country and decade, expansions grew more likely to end with age, short of the bar the rules set for a departure.

Channel: Measurement. Neither a survival nor a kill.

Ice-age tests (Measurement)

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Computed once, after their deposit. C1, whether the cold spells were memoryless, survives. C2, a 1,470-year clock, finds no clock.

Channel: Measurement. Dated survivals of proposition 3 in this record.

Orbits test (Invalid run)

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Run once, after its deposit. The registered verdict is a kill of proposition 3 in this model: memory under a steady disturbance. After the run, the test's neighborhood turned out not to contain the island, so what it counted were fragments of laps, not stays near the island. The result and the flaw are on the orbits page. Recorded as invalid, the author's decision on 30 September 2026. A corrected test, r2, is drafted, to be deposited before it runs.

Channel: Invalid run. Counts neither for nor against proposition 3, and moves nothing.

Lake tests (Measurement)

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Run once, after their deposit. E1, watching or pushing, restricted: pushing was never clearly better than watching. E2, the ghost, survives. E3a, memory, survives. E3b, depth, unresolved. E3c, warning, survives.

Channel: Measurement. Dated survivals of propositions 2 and 3 for E2, E3a and E3c. The pre-registration reads a restricted E1 as a refinement of proposition 2, adopted in v1.0.

Deposits (Instrument)

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Pre-registrations deposited on Zenodo before any run: lake r1 (10.5281/zenodo.23065462), orbits r1 (10.5281/zenodo.23066015), ice-age r1 (10.5281/zenodo.23066235) and expansions X1 r1 (10.5281/zenodo.23066598). Snapshot 1's results bundle deposited as 10.5281/zenodo.23066893.

Channel: Instrument. Does not move the specification version.

v0.2.2 (Patch version)

Tue, 29 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Editorial: the "across the sciences" rows of propositions 1 to 5 removed. Where each proposition stands in each domain is kept in one place, the ledger on the Sciences page, so the two pages cannot drift apart. This page keeps each proposition's instrument and status and changes when those change. No proposition's wording changed, and the anchors are unchanged.

Channel: Patch version.

v0.2.1 (Patch version)

Tue, 29 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Editorial: statuses brought up to date with the Economy page. Proposition 6's candidate instrument, Hamilton's regime-switching model, marked as built and demonstrated on US output, with its series not named. Test X1 listed under proposition 3. Economics added to the "across the sciences" rows of propositions 1 to 5. No proposition's wording changed, and the anchors are unchanged.

Channel: Patch version.

Pre-registration: expansions X1 r1 (Instrument)

Tue, 29 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Frozen locally with every file hashed and the OECD data file included, to be deposited on Zenodo with the other bundles and run only after: the permission to compute comes from the deposit's DOI. The first test written against version 0.2's wording. Before the freeze only the data file's structure was read, and the sample was then limited to measured quarters, since most countries' early decades are OECD estimates.

Channel: Instrument. Does not move the specification version.

v0.2 (Minor version, internal)

Tue, 29 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Proposition 4's scope stated: systems held by a throughput, with a runway definition measured apart from outcomes, and its falsifier restricted to that scope. Proposition 3's conditions stated: exits memoryless for islands of given depth, with differences in depth and exhaustion named as ways a hazard can change with age without memory. Both drawn from the pages on other sciences. The skeptic's reading of each is entered as an open objection. The v0.1 wording is kept under its anchors.

Channel: Minor version, internal: from the site's own evidence, not an outside objection. The count of accepted external objections stays at zero.

v0.1.3 (Patch version)

Tue, 29 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Editorial: each proposition's status brought up to date with the pages on other sciences (nuclear physics, ecology, orbits, stars, climate, organizations, chemistry) and the Sciences ledger. Frozen tests listed under propositions 2 and 3. An "across the sciences" row added to propositions 1 to 4. The cross-domain rule's list of domains extended. No proposition's wording changed.

Channel: Patch version.

Pre-registrations: lake r1, orbits r1, ice-age r1 (Instrument)

Tue, 29 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Frozen locally with every file hashed, to be deposited on Zenodo before the site goes live and run only after: the random seeds, or for the ice-age tests the permission to compute, come from each deposit's DOI. The lake's E3c alarm was revised before its freeze after a disclosed pilot of its positive control. The ice-age tests were re-frozen after a loader fix, before anything was computed.

Channel: Instrument. Does not move the specification version.

Snapshot 1 (Measurement)

Tue, 29 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Measured on three local models, 18,720 runs. Map test 1 (upper tool edge) restricted for gpt-oss-20b and Qwen3-14B, below resolution for Qwen3-4B. Map test 2 (recovery cost) survives for all three, the cost being the retry itself. Bearing on proposition 1: in the agent domain, between two and six tools, a slope along the fault axis rather than a band with an upper tool edge.

Channel: Measurement. Entered in v1.0.

Pre-registration r4 (Instrument)

Sat, 26 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Rules confirmed decision by decision, frozen with every fixed input hashed, and deposited on Zenodo before any run (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22982434). Tau and task difficulty set by calibration. Calibration band widened to [0.15, 0.95] on simulation evidence. Three local models. Both tool orders run, order B descriptive.

Channel: Instrument. Does not move the specification version.

v0.1.2 (Patch version)

Fri, 25 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Editorial: thesis stated first on the home page. Plain-language line and "if this holds" row per proposition. Glossary. Reading paths. Construct mapping and threats to validity on the Map. Author named. Instrument versions renamed to an r-numbered scheme (draft v0.2 is now draft r2).

Channel: Patch version.

Pre-registration draft r3 (Instrument)

Fri, 25 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Tool mix fixed, with a replicate mix. Single regression model as the P1 test. Fault cap demoted to a consistency check. Fault-axis boundary shape added as a descriptive comparison. Viable fraction descriptive at 50 percent. One-tool cells out of scope. Not yet deposited.

Channel: Instrument. Does not move the specification version.

v0.1.1 (Patch version, per the three-channel rule)

Thu, 24 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Editorial: hero restated to what exists. Propositions 5 and 6 grouped as framing. Cross-domain rule added. Method note moved to a footnote. Economics prior owners added under each proposition and Markov-switching named as a candidate instrument for proposition 6.

Channel: Patch version, per the three-channel rule.

Pre-registration draft r2 (formerly draft v0.2) (Instrument)

Thu, 24 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Axis logic corrected (band with an upper edge and a fault cap). Decision rules split per proposition. Sampling error added as the boundary criterion. Rerun jitter reported separately. Not yet deposited.

Channel: Instrument. Does not move the specification version.

v0.1 (Baseline)

Thu, 24 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Six propositions, method note, instrument status column, open-objections list.

Channel: Baseline. The counted changelog starts here.

v0.0 (Origin)

Mon, 14 Apr 2025 12:00:00 GMT

Five claims distilled from the essay.

Channel: Origin. Not counted.